The earthquake will cause $90.4 billion damage to residential buildings and 96.4 to commercial buildings. This fault is capable of M 7 earthquakes and presents significant ground motion hazard to the heavily populated East Bay, including the cities of Oakland, Berkeley, Hayward and Fremont. To the west is the well-known San Andreas fault. 1989) Prediction: current crustal deformation Prediction: crustal velocity (mm/yr) from repeated GPS measurements at permanent stations Learning from analogues (Turkey - California) The Bay Area: … We conducted a paleoseismic investigation to better understand the Hayward fault's past earthquake behavior. Search for other works by this author on: GSW. At the time, it was known as the 'great San Francisco quake' (this was before the infamous 1906 quake, produced by the San Andreas fault), and it produced massive amounts of damage and several people lost their lives. Earthquake Stress Drops and Inferred Fault Strength on the Hayward Fault, East San Francisco Bay, California Jeanne L. Hardebeck; Jeanne L. Hardebeck U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, California. It will (hopefully) give you a few seconds to react to the earthquake before it arrives… Updated October 21, 1868 (Credit: U.S. Geological Survey) Alameda County Courthouse in San Leandro collapsed and severely damaged. The Hayward Fault Zone runs through much of Hayward, including the downtown area. Pallett Creek, CA (after Sieh, et al. Page 75 of The online version of “The Coming Bay Area Earthquake: 2010 Update of Scenario for a Magnitude 7.0 Earthquake on the Hayward Fault published by the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute describes the situation vividly. Like most earthquake faults in the region, it is a right-lateral strike-slip fault; that is, facing the fault from either side, the opposite side moves to the right. Since then, nearly three million people have moved next to the Hayward fault with little regard for its earthquake potential. One Response to “Earthquake advice for Oaklanders 2: The ground” mpetrof Says: 14 September 2020 at 3:40 pm. The fault is around 119 km long and offers the potential for generating very destructive earthquakes. While some creeping faults are completely unlocked and do not build up the significant stress needed to generate large earthquakes, the Hayward Fault is only partially locked. Shaking severity from an hypothetical earthquake on the Hayward fault. The Hayward Fault Zone is a geologic fault zone capable of generating destructive earthquakes.This fault is about 74 mi (119 km) long, situated mainly along the western base of the hills on the east side of San Francisco Bay.It runs through densely populated areas, including Richmond, El Cerrito, Berkeley, Oakland, San Leandro, Castro Valley, Hayward, Union City, Fremont, and San Jose. The past five large earthquakes on Hayward fault have been about 140 years apart , so this fault and the Rodgers Creek faults are the most likely to have a major earthquake in the bay. Earthquake science was still young, but the architects apparently realized that the Hayward is a fault, where two pieces of crust move past each other. The Hayward fault is a major strike-slip fault on the eastern side of the Bay Area. If that is the case, the longer fault system could … The Hayward fault runs parallel to several other local faults. Last year there was an M=4.4 earthquake in the Piedmont area, which is pretty close to the swarm of quakes that hit in the past 2 days, although unlike today’s quake, it was not on the main strand of the Hayward Fault. At the exhibit, the fault slid about 3 feet. In the 2010 update, the significant points from the 1996 report are summarized and then updated information is provided. The last major earthquake that the Hayward fault produced was in 1868. October 12, 1868: An earthquake with a magnitude of 6.8 struck the region of San Francisco Bay. The fault slipped 3 to 6 feet along the fault. To the east is the Calaveras fault and further east is the Clayton-Marsh Creek-Greenville fault. Ruins of the Alameda County courthouse in San Leandro, after an earthquake on the Hayward Fault on October 21, 1868. All these faults are created by the Pacific Plate traveling … The Hayward fault runs through UC Berkeley campus (US $1 billion seismic upgrade program) Recurrence - historical records Recurrence: geological evidence e.g. Illustration of the double-difference earthquake relocation algorithm. We have documented a chronology of 11 paleoearthquakes on the southern Hayward fault (HS) preceding the Mw6.8, 1868 earthquake. Its last major rupture occurred in 1868, during California's frontier days, and was the original "Great San Francisco Earthquake" until 1906.. The apparent regularity in timing implied by this earthquake chronology lends support for the use of time-dependent renewal models rather than assuming a random process to forecast earthquakes, at least for the southern Hayward fault. The United States Geological Survey has stated that there is an "increasing likelihood" of a major earthquake on this fault zone, with potentially serious resulting damage. A record of large earthquakes on the southern Hayward fault for the past 500 years. The Hayward Fault, or more correctly the Hayward Fault Zone, is a large geological fault zone located along the western base of the hills on the east side of San Francisco Bay. Where possible, original chapter authors were interviewed and many assisted in updating their contributions. ... We compare the spatial distribution of stress drops on the Hayward fault to a model of creeping versus locked behavior of the fault and find that high stress … The online version of “The Coming Bay Area Earthquake, 2010 Update of Scenario for a Magnitude 7.0 Earthquake on the Hayward Fault” (PDF file, 3.5 MB) is now available. The last major rupture occured in 1868 with an M 6.8-7.0 event. The Hayward earthquake was caused by a lateral shift along a 40 mile stretch of the fault, running from Fremont, north to Berkeley. (The Bancroft Library, UC Berkeley) When a bigger one came along on the San Andreas Fault in the spring of 1906, the Great-Quake moniker was reassigned. Earthquake Stress Drops and Inferred Fault Strength on the Hayward Fault, East San Francisco Bay, California Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 2009 99:3 pp.1801-1814 2010 – Brad T. Aagaard, Robert W. Graves, David P. Schwartz, David A. Ponce, Russell W. Graymer … History shows that five large earthquakes on the Hayward fault have occurred on average every 150 years—last being in 1868. Earthquake Science Zones: There will be two sites that people could ask scientists and educators about the science behind the Hayward Fault. The last big earthquake along the Hayward Fault was in 1868. Hayward has had: (M1.5 or greater) 0 earthquakes in the past 24 hours 6 earthquakes in the past 7 days; 17 earthquakes in the past 30 days; 319 earthquakes in the past 365 days The Hayward fault where the quake shook lies beneath a highly populated area in the Bay—and the next "big one" could be a magnitude 6.8 to 7 earthquake. It was closer to San Leandro where the fault slipped about 6 feet. It was approximately a magnitude 6.9. Studies of the fault reveal that it has produced 12 large earthquakes in the past 2000 years spaced 100-220 years apart. Fremont Earthquake Exhibit. The western side moved north and the eastern side moved south. The Hayward fault, a major branch of the right-lateral San Andreas fault system, traverses the densely populated eastern San Francisco Bay region, California. The Hayward Fault in the East Bay is considered the most dangerous earthquake fault in America. The U.S. Geological Survey describes the Hayward Fault as “the single most urbanized earthquake fault in the United States.” Picture via Temblor According to the U.S. Geological Survey, the average rate of creep on the Hayward is 4.6 millimetres per year or about the length of a standard black garden ant, or a quarter of a jelly bean. The Hayward Fault may be less well-known than the San Andreas Fault, but seismologists now call it a time bomb that could kill nearly a 1,000 people and injure tens of thousands more. The Hayward Fault is typically the core concern for experts offering San Francisco Earthquake Predictions, as it’s due for another large earthquake very soon. The last major rupture occured in 1868 with an M 6.8-7.0 event. Set up mobile alerts and/or download the MyShake app, an early earthquake warning system which alerts you when it detects significant earthquakes. A Double-Difference Earthquake Location Algorithm: Method and Application to the Northern Hayward Fault, California 1355 Figure 1. This means that the Hayward Fault is not frictionally locked and can slip without large earthquakes. Your article made me think of the presentation at NCGS about the massive computer modelling done on the Hayward Fault that surprisingly, showed much higher ground motions east of the fault than west! While the effects of these earthquakes may differ from place to place, a major earthquake on the Hayward fault is not an exclusive East Bay concern and a San Andreas event is not an exclusive San Francisco concern. The last major quake along the Hayward fault happened in October of 1868, when a magnitude 6.8 hit the San Francisco Bay region, making it the most destructive earthquake in the state’s history. Along the Hayward fault, sometimes there is a series of earthquakes that all have similar magnitudes (a swarm) … A fault’s length is related to the maximum strength of an earthquake it can produce. The Hayward fault is a major strike-slip fault on the eastern side of the Bay Area. The fault broke for about 30 miles from around Milpitas to the Oakland-Berkeley border. But things have changed since 1906 and the Hayward is now … However, many scientists believe that the Hayward Fault is connected to the Calaveras Fault to the south, the Rodgers Creek Fault to the north and to the Maacama Fault still farther north. Afterward, the county seat moved to Oakland. It extends approximately 50 miles along the foot of the East Bay hills, from south Fremont into the San Pablo Bay. The threat to San Francisco from the Hayward fault was recognized by A. C. Lawson in 1908 in Report of the State Earthquake Commission, The California earthquake of April 18, 1906, p. … We’ve updated this video: https://youtu.be/GhFMtCmHc9cOctober 21st will mark the 141st Anniversary of the 1868 Hayward Earthquake. So while there is creep at the ground surface, large (M~7) earthquakes tend to occur on average every 161±65 years. Luke Blair and Susan Garcia (both from the U.S. Geological Survey showcased the "Faulted Floor" where 60 years of "creep" along the Hayward Fault can be seen. The Hayward Fault is part of the San Andreas Fault system. This fault is capable of M 7 earthquakes and presents significant ground motion hazard to the heavily populated East Bay, including the cities of Oakland, Berkeley, Hayward and Fremont. San Lorenzo Creek runs through the city. In the simulation, the earthquake starts at the very northern section of the fault near Richmond and ends near Hayward. In 2020 At 2021 And 2022 A 2023 At 2026 At 2028 At 2030 September 6th Future Earthquake Alaska British Columbia Washington Oregon Idaho Montana Wyoming Utah Nevada Arizona California M 10.9 Ring of fire cascadia fault At San Andreas fault Hayward fault Garlock fault Afternoon Aftershock 10.9 Breaking New Alert South highway road traffic 5 west coast car truck bus rv train evacuate evacuation … Abstract. The Hayward fault is a 90 kilometer long crack in the Earth's crust that travels through the San Francisco Bay area. These large earthquakes were both regular and frequent, as indicated by a 0.40 coefficient of variation and mean recurrence interval (MRI) of 161 ± 65 yr (1σ of recurrence intervals). Now think about how we'll do in an earthquake when our roads will be impacted (the Hayward Fault runs right over 680 and many main transportation corridors!). The Hayward Fault is thought capable of generating a magnitude 7.5 quake. 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